Facebook event or Freeport McMoran earnings?

On Tuesday, January 15, 2013, Facebook $FB conducts a much anticipated event "Look what we are building." Also on Tuesday Freeport McMoran $FCX releases earnings. Which will have more market impact?

Markets:

30-Year US Treasury Bond - yield 3.054 from 3.111 due to Japan stimulus.

US Dollar Index - 79.56 down from 80.50 last week.

Gold - $1,662.70 slightly higher than $1,656.80 last week. Seeking Alpha
Copper - $3.65 compared to $3.68 last week. Stocktwits
Oil - $93.70 about the same as $93.13 last week. Stocktwits

Public traded stocks:

Barrick Gold - $34.25 down from $34.60 last week. "miserable year (2012) for investors" Seeking Alpha

Newmont Mining - $45.76 same as $45.94 last week. - "Sell Newmont...."Seeking Alpha

Rio Alto Mining - $5.18 down from $5.24 - produced 201,113 ounces of gold in 2012 Kitco news

Freeport McMoran - $35 down from $35.49 - "earnings report $0.77"  Jan 15. Live Trading News

Projects and Exploration:

Sulliden Gold - C$1.03 up from C$0.94 last week Shahuindo Project - Location Peru. Sulliden website

Tartisan Resources ... C$0.12 - Engages Ubika Corporation to Promote Investor Exposure... Newsfile

Candente Gold... C$0.16 - Projects - Map Alto Dorado... Candente Gold website

Candente Copper... Cañariaco Norte Copper Project located in northern Peru

New Demensions Resources...Cenpa project on Equador border. See map
Privately held companies:

Comarsa... joins facebook.... Facebook/Comarsa

Disclosure: I intend to focus on selected gold mines in Northern Peru. I have one position in Rio Alto mining. I prepared this article myself, and linked it to third party articles and information published on the internet. I am not receiving compensation for this article other than from Google Adsense, my website www.leansupplier.com and the sale of my book The Lean Supplier. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

My 2013 Trading Resolutions

2012 Performance: 21.48% including all the big mistakes and embarrassments.

2013 Trading Resolutions:

1. How many times did I PANIC-SELL exactly at the bottom in 2012? Way too many!

2. Don't waste a 5% profit once made. DON'T be GREEDY!

3. SWING-TRADE only my well-researched DOW stocks, those that price homework is done daily and technical homework done weekly over a period of three months or more. Buy on 200 points DOWN days. SELL on 200 UP days, or at least enter a SELL STOP. Trade with the emotion of the MACHINES. Do not trade hyped-up IPO's or stocks promoted on TV. Listen daily to Bloomberg as well as MNBC. STAY WITH THE PLAN.

4. Look for five EPS GROWTH STOCKS per week, sixty growth opportunities/quarter 2013. Summarize research onto manual note cards and prioritize by growth rate. Swing-trade only the five highest growth stocks. Complete weekly technical data weekly on top fifteen stocks. Complete EPS growth rate on all sixty once every quarter.

5. Do LOSS CONTROL homework on position holdings daily. Protect capital even if I have to sell at the bottom. Remember the trading rule, "the first loss is the least lost". We all make mistakes, and I made some really embarrassing mistakes in 2012. Do LOSS CONTROL daily and make the decision!

6. Don't BUY on BIG UP days, UNLESS there is a significant change in the price of the corresponding commodity, the FED policy, or an international event impacting prices.

7. On big positions with a big trading profit, DON'T WAIT to SELL...only to lose alot! SIMPLY SELL when the trend changes. Then go play golf, go fishing, or take a long walk for several days or even months.  If the LORD has favored me with a large profit don't forget to help my less fortunate family members with 10% of the profit.

8. 2012 has shown me that my health is the most important of all trading rules and regulations. STAY HEALTHY in 2013.

Markets:

30-Year US Treasury Bond -  the yield increased to 3.111 from 2.87 percent.

US Dollar Index - 80.50 up from 79.67 last week.

Gold - $1,656.80 vs $1,653.80 last week, slight increase despite... "Fed Considers End to Stimulus"
Copper - $3.68 up from $3.60 last week.
Oil - $93.13 up from $91.30 on December 28, 2012

Public traded stocks:

Barrick Gold  - $34.60 up from $34.01 - "Returns will drive production..." Barrick PDF presentation 

Newmont Mining - $45.94 up from $45.03 - "...And The Way Forward" Forbes

Rio Alto Mining - $5.24 up from $4.97 - "cost guidance in January 2013..."   Seeking Alpha

Freeport McMoran - $35.49 up from $33.14 - "Freeport-McMoRan Has It Right" Insider Monkey

Projects and Exploration:

Sulliden Gold - C$0.94 up from C$0.86 - Shahuindo Project - Location in Peru. Sulliden website

Tartisan Resources ... C$0.12 - Engages Ubika Corporation to Promote Investor Exposure... Newsfile

Candente Gold... C$0.16 - Projects - Map Alto Dorado... Candente Gold website

Candente Copper... Cañariaco Norte Copper Project located in northern Peru

Privately held companies:

Comarsa... joins facebook.... Facebook/Comarsa

Disclosure: I intend to focus on selected gold mines in Northern Peru. I have no positions in the stocks mentioned above, however that might change if gold and copper prices increase this week. I prepared this article myself, and linked it to third party articles and information published on the internet. I am not receiving compensation for this article other than from Google Adsense, my website www.leansupplier.com and the sale of my book The Lean Supplier. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Fiscal cliff impacts my gold stocks.

Going over the fiscal cliff corrects the many budget imbalances created during the Bush/Greenspan years and exacerbated during the Obama/Bernanke years. It sounds like the prudent and conservative thing to do. BUT....

... would it really be wise to abandon the "Bernanke way"?

The budget imbalances, from my viewpoint, are showing up as a surplus in afew countries like China and Peru, and in many large corporations like Apple $AAPL, Google $GOOG, and Exxon $XOM. These fortunate instututions don't know what to do with their surplus so they lend it back to the US Treasury, ie purchase US Treasury Bonds. Interest on the US treasury bonds is historically low, and in fact paying more interest would only result in more accumulation of dollars in afew fortunate countries and large corporations. Best that interest rates remain low, or zero, for the forseeable future, or until employment picks-up.

Fortunately, the "Buck" does not stop at the US Treasury, the US government pays it out to the military complex, medicare, unemployment benefits, social security, ie. the circulation of money keeps going and the "Buck" is passed to the consumer. Stopping the flow of money would be the worst case for the US government. Most likely it would cause riots in the streets in addition to a collapse of the economy in general. There is already a lack of demand. We need more demand, not less!

Therefore, why abandon a fiscal strategy which appears to keep everything in place, a policy which keeps the flow of money intact and maintains a floor under consumer demand?  That's my question.

As for my gold stocks, let's face it, Bernanke has changed course from supporting US Treasury bonds to supporting real estate mortgages and the real estate market.  Gold stocks flourished during the first phase of Bernanke's strategy.  Will they continue to flourish?  Maybe so... as long as the gold companies invest their surplus dollars in the private sector and not US Treasury Bonds.

I hope we don't go over the fiscal cliff.

Bond Market:

30-Year US Treasury Bond -  "the yield on the 30-Year Bond declined 5 basis points to 2.87 percent."

US Dollar Index - 79.67 - "Dollar Index Touches Two-Week High."

Gold - $1,653.80 - "...one might expect more modest increases in metal prices..."

Public traded stocks:

Barrick Gold  - $34.01 - $ABX ... Returns will drive production... Barrick website

                       ... Photos — Pasqua-Lama Project Overview November 2012... Barrick website

Newmont Mining - $45.03 - $NEM "...dividend yield... 3.2% and return on capital is 13%..." Barrons

Rio Alto Mining - $4.97 - $RIOM...production cost guidance in January 2013..."   Seeking Alpha

Freeport McMoran - $33.14 - $FCX "...refuse to give up at Davy Jones 1..." Forbes

Projects and Exploration:

Sulliden Gold - C$0.86 - Shahuindo Project - Location in Peru. see Sulliden website

Tartisan Resources ... Engages Ubika Corporation to Promote Investor Exposure... Newsfile

Candente Gold... Projects - Map Alto Dorado... Candente Gold website

Privately held companies:

Comarsa... joins facebook.... Facebook/Comarsa

Disclosure: I intend to focus on selected gold mines in Northern Peru. I have one long positions in the stocks mentioned above. I prepared this article myself, and linked it to third party articles and information published on the internet. I am not receiving compensation for this article other than from Google Adsense, my website www.leansupplier.com and the sale of my book The Lean Supplier. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Merry Christmas to All - Felice Navidad a Todos - 2

Disclosure: I intend to focus on selected gold mines in Northern Peru. I have no long positions in the stocks mentioned below. I prepared this article myself, and linked it to third party articles and information published on the internet. I am not receiving compensation for this article other than from Google Adsense, my website www.leansupplier.com and the sale of my book The Lean Supplier. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Merry Christmas to All - Felice Navidad a Todos

My Gold Mining Companies

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Public traded stocks:

Barrick Gold  ... Returns will drive production... Barrick website
                       ... Photos — Pasqua-Lama Project Overview November 2012... Barrick website

Newmont Mining.. Listening to the city of Cajamarca...  Yanacocha website

Rio Alto Mining... trading on the NYSE under the ticker symbol "RIOM"... Yahoo Finance
                          ... “Leading by Example” November 2012 corporate... Rio Alto website

Projects and Exploration:

Sulliden Gold - Shahuindo Project - Location in Peru. see Sulliden website

Tartisan Resources ... Engages Ubika Corporation to Promote Investor Exposure... Newsfile

Candente Gold... Projects - Map Alto Dorado... Candente Gold website
Privately held companies:
Comarsa... joins facebook.... Facebook/Comarsa
Bond Market:
30-Year US Treasury Bond -  U.S. 30-year Treasury Yields Reach 3%

Merry Christmas - Felice Navidad - December, 2012

Disclosure: I intend to focus on selected gold mines in Northern Peru. I have no long positions in the stocks mentioned below. I prepared this article myself, and linked it to third party articles and information published on the internet. I am not receiving compensation for this article other than from Google Adsense, my website www.leansupplier.com and the sale of my book The Lean Supplier. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Merry Christmas to All - Felice Navidad a Todos

My Gold Mining Companies
Saturday, December 15, 2012

Public traded stocks :

Barrick Gold  ... to inject $2 billion to Pascua-Lama in 2013. Mining.com News

Newmont Mining  Social opposition to mining in Peru intensified in 2012. Business News Americas
Rio Alto Mining (RIO.TO)  2012 gold production guidance of 190,000 to 210,000 ounces. Yahoo 

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE:FCX)  re-enters the oil and gas business (Seeking Alpha)
$4 billion mill expansion at the Cerro Verde copper operation in Peru next year. Mining.com News

Private owned company:

COMARSA The United States government has unblocked the U.S. bank account... Peruvian Times

Projects and Exploration:

Sulliden Gold - Shahuindo Project - Location in Peru. see Sulliden website

Tartisan Resources    engages UBIKA Corporation to promote investor exposure. Minera Tartisan
Candente Copper (TSE:DNT) said workers driving to its Cañariaco Norte project, a large-scale open pit copper project in northern Peru, were stopped and detained on Tuesday. Mining.com News

Loss Control Saturday, December 1, 2012

Weekly Report: Long positions in ABX and RIO.TO stocks disclosed in last week's blog were stopped-out during the week, and, as of today, I have no position in any of the stocks mentioned below. I initiated two positions last week based on a falling dollar index, however it remained relatively stable closing at 80.23 on Nov 30, 2012 compared to 80.30 one week prior, essentially no change. Gold price declined approximately $30 oz to $1715. ABX declined about $0.75 to $34.50 and RIO.TO declined $0.09 to $5.06 during the same period. I lost $79.85 on my RIO.TO position and $1,289.53 on my ABX position. Total loss equals -$1369.38

From my viewpoint: I see three possibilities the first being that Washington politicians fail to resolve their stalemate, and that results in the USA economy going over the fiscal cliff on January 1, 2013. This is my preference by the way. The dollar strengthens and gold declines to $1,450 oz as the budget becomes suddenly more balanced. If on the other hand, Washington politicians come to a compromise which shows promise of both tax increases and spending cutbacks, then the dollar index remains the same as now, at 80 or slightly above, and gold remains in a range of $1,650-$1,750 oz. The third possibility, and most probable based on past history, Washington politicians manage to kick-the-can down the road once again. Then the dollar weakens and gold climbs to $2,000 oz. Before that happens it would be to my benefit if ABX would decline to near $31 or lower, and RIO.TO declines to $4.65 or lower, price where I would consider initiating a new position in these two stocks. Possibilities #1 and #2? I believe it best to avoid gold and mining stocks as returns would be much better in other investments including real estate.

Disclosure:  I have no plans to initiate positions in the stocks mentioned below within the next 72 hours. I prepared this article myself, and linked it to third party articles and information published on the internet. I am not receiving compensation for this article. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. I cannot confirm the accuracy of the linked internet articles. I intend to focus on gold mines in Northern Peru only.

Alto Chicama Gold District, Northern Peru

Public traded stocks with operating mines:

Barrick: Look Beyond Pascua-Lama

NEM - Yanacocha Mine
Rio Alto Advances Precious Metal Projects 

Private owned company:

COMARSA - Santa Rosa Mine

Projects:

Sulliden Gold - Shahuindo property.

Tartisan Resources

Articles and Information published by third parties on the Internet:

Gold - ABN Amro sees lower gold prices in 2013 and 2014

Dollar Index 

ABX  I believe that Barrick's  Pascua Lama project cost-overrun weighs heavily in the market.

COMARSA - US unblocks COMARSA bank account.

NEM - Zacks upgrade to nuetral.

Peru - good article on financial situation.

Shop Amazon - Cyber Monday Deals Week

Loss Control Saturday, December 8, 2012

Fed Finale: The End of Operation Twist, or the Start of QE4? - Read and ponder a quote from the article: "With Operation Twist ending, that means they've run out of short-dated securities to sell in order to purchase more [longer-term securities], so what they've got to move to now is buying up pure $40 billion per month of mortgage-backed securities [QE3]," says Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak. "They probably have to compensate for that loss of $40 [billion] to $45 billion per month."

What this means to me is that the Fed needs a new, creative program, not just another QE4.  Here's the problem: The Fed buys up mortgages from big banks like Wells Fargo and Bank of America and in return these banks get dollars in their accounts. What can the banks do with these new dollars?

1. They could lend them out for new mortgages, yes, a great idea but... lending requirements are stiff for new mortgages and inventory of available houses is low... so this plan is not going to work too well in the short term for the Fed. No one is going to sell a house, or a mortgage for that matter.

2. Maybe the banks could invest the money in US Treasuries for the short term just like everyone has been doing for the last several years (especially big Companies, big Banks, wealthy retirees and the Chinese government)... oops! as mentioned in the article above the Fed has "... run out of short-dated securities to sell ..." and the Fed has bought up the longer term securities in previous operation twist. Rates are so low now that no one wants to invest to preserve capital... only to purchase higher priced investments at a future date (2015)? Not convincing to me either.

3. So what will the banks do with the Fed money in the short-term? I guess purchase corporate bonds and stocks yeilding 2.5% which will result in yeilds declining to the level of US Treasuries, or 0.5% above. Of course this just moves the dollars from one bank account to the next. Does this really accomplish anything other than lowering corporate bond and stock yields, ie retirement income?

4. What else could corporations with large cash balances and positive cash flow do now? Read this week's article Freeport Snaps Up Plains, McMoRan decision to invest in the US Plains energy company. Could this be a harbinger of 2013-2015 corporate finance/economics based on current Fed monetary strategies. Avoid investments in risk assets like gold, silver and copper.  Get rid of devaluating dollars and US Treasuries. Move to energy investments with long term demand growth potential with production in the US. Could this strategy also work for my stock portfolio? Maybe... and this has been the investment strategy of Wall Street for at least the last year now.

5. But the fundamental question still remains, how can the Fed "compensate for that loss of $40 [billion] to $45 billion per month?" I guess they just have to sell something else. What could they sell? No one wants worthless mortgages, or do they? Maybe investors do want worthless and problematic mortgages, especially if the mortgages correspond to foreclosed homes, land, and commercial properties. A Fed backed program of returning foreclosed properties back to the private economy might actually promote the "Fed's dual mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability". I like this strategy best because it is focused on US investments and employment, not investments in mining projects overseas. It stimulates at a low level in the US economy, directly provides opportunity for thousands, if not millions of small and medium investors in houses and commercial properties and provide a boost for US employment.

6. Here is a link to my website www.leansupplier.com